NASA Predicts 1.9% Chance of Large Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth in 2032

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) study, there is a 1.9% chance that a large asteroid will hit Earth in 2032, up from 1.6% yesterday. According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, there is now a 1.9% chance that a large asteroid could pass close enough to Earth within the next decade to pose a potential threat.

The odds of impact in 2032 have increased from 1.6% yesterday to 1.9% today, translating to a 1 in 53 chance of collision or a 98.1% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, measures between 130 and 330 feet in diameter. These estimates will likely fluctuate as more data becomes available.

There's a 1.9% chance that a large asteroid will hit Earth in 2032, according to NASA pic.twitter.com/JaKLXNWk6a

— Dima Zeniuk (@DimaZeniuk) February 6, 2025

Astronomers are currently calculating the size and speed of the asteroid. It is rated 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard scale. Experts say that if this asteroid hits the Earth, it will have the power to cause as much destruction as a nuclear bomb. If it falls in a populated area, it will cause serious damage. However, it is more likely that YR4 will fall in a remote part of the ocean or land. At this time, it is very far from Earth. It is difficult to decide what effect it will have in the event of a conflict.

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Dr. Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society said that there is not much concern about this right now; people do not need to panic. NASA successfully changed the path of an asteroid with the DART mission in 2022. If there is a risk of collision with the earth of YR4, then the UN teams will consider options to act on it.