West Asia energy output may take two years to recover: IEA on Iran war impact

Bern [Switzerland], April 17 : The Middle East could take upto two years to restore lost energy production following the war with Iran, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as reported by Switzerland's Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Swiss newspaper that recovery timelines would vary across the region depending on national production capacities and infrastructure resilience.

"In Iraq, for example, it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia," Birol said, highlighting the uneven pace of recovery among major oil-producing states.

He added that, according to IEA estimates, it would take "approximately two years overall" for production in the Middle-East to return to pre-war levels.

Emphasising the global economy, he said, "I have said time and again that the global economy can be held hostage by a few hundred armed men," according to the newspaper.

According to the newspaper, Birol anticipated further flight cancellations, disrupted supply chains, and renewed momentum for the comeback of nuclear energy.

Established in 1974, the International Energy Agency is an international energy forum comprised of 29 industrialised countries under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to the United Kingdom Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, to discuss the Iran ceasefire and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Al Jazeera, citing US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott.

The two sides discussed the urgent need to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring that commercial vessels can transit safely and that global energy supplies continue to flow without disruption.

The ceasefire agreed between Washington and Tehran is currently set to expire on April 22.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said it remains unclear whether the ceasefire with Iran will be extended, even as he expressed optimism about ongoing negotiations and indicated that the next round of talks could take place over the weekend.

Responding to a question on extending the ceasefire, President Trump said, "We're doing very well. I can tell you, maybe it'll happen before that. I'm not sure it needs to be extended. Just so you know, Iran wants to make a deal, and we're dealing very nicely with them. We've got to have no nuclear weapons. If we do, that's a big factor, and they're willing to do things today that they weren't willing to do two months ago."

He added that the US is currently focused on concluding a deal with Iran, suggesting that progress in talks could make an extension unnecessary.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that US forces are actively enforcing a large-scale maritime blockade targeting Iran's ports and coastline, involving more than 10,000 personnel, over a dozen naval vessels, and upwards of 100 aircraft.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are set to host a virtual meeting of world leaders to discuss efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and secure vital shipping routes, CNN reported.

Leaders from around 40 countries are expected to participate in the summit, focusing on supporting the fragile ceasefire involving Iran and ensuring safe passage through the key maritime corridor, as reported by CNN.

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