The betting markets, including major players and small-time punters, are reportedly poised to gamble thousands of crores on the Maharashtra assembly elections. However, for the first time, prominent bookies, reeling from past losses, have taken a cautious approach, creating turmoil in the central Indian betting market.
Traditionally, events like cricket matches or elections—whether domestic or international—have seen massive betting activity originating from central India, particularly Nagpur in Maharashtra. Until recently, bookies were known for their accuracy in predicting outcomes, even when candidates or their supporters faltered. However, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections marked a significant setback when many bookies failed to predict results correctly, leading to massive financial losses.
Against this backdrop, the ongoing Maharashtra assembly elections have further unsettled the betting scene. With fierce competition between the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance and the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), most of the 288 constituencies are witnessing neck-and-neck battles.
Prominent prediction hubs, including the highly reputed "Falaidi" market, have offered fluctuating odds that reflect the unpredictability of the election. This has made big-time bookies reluctant to take significant risks, leading to unusual restraint in the betting market. In a bid to minimise losses, bookies have denied punters consistent odds, resulting in varied rates being offered on different platforms.
Confusion Over Betting Odds on Hot Seats
Certain "hot seat" constituencies have added to the chaos, with inconsistent odds such as 65-80, 80-1, and 90-90 being floated. This lack of standardisation, referred to as "Chor-Bhav" in the betting community, has frustrated punters and bookies alike. Some big bookies have gone so far as to temporarily halt activities, reportedly spreading a viral message in betting circles: "Election... Bhav Bandh, Bhav Bandh. Wait till the 23rd; results will settle the books."
While seasoned players remain wary, smaller, less experienced bookies are reportedly operating on volatile and unpredictable rates, keeping the market alive, albeit chaotically.
This unprecedented scenario highlights the risks associated with betting on elections as bookies scramble to adapt to a landscape of shifting alliances and highly unpredictable outcomes.