In the predictions on the basis of data received till 4 p.m. on May 19, Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to upset the BJP in Uttar Pradesh as the alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may win 40 seats and the BJP can come down to 38 from 71 it had won in 2014.
The BJP's seat projection of 236 is down from 283 it won in 2014 and the NDA's tally is expected to slide from 337 in 2014 to 287.
The NDA's vote share is likely to be 42.3 per cent with the UPA getting 29.6% and others expected to corner 28.1 per cent.
The Congress-led UPA is expected to win 128 seats, up from 59 it got in 2014. Out of this, the Congress may get 80, almost doubling its tally of 44 last time.
The major gains for the NDA are in West Bengal where it is expected to win 11 seats, up from 2 it had won last time. The other new expansion for the party is expected to be in Odisha where it is expected to win 10, a gain of 9 from 2014.
It might be taking a beating in Uttar Pradesh, but the NDA seems to be holding its turf in Bihar where it is expected to win 33 with 13 going to BJP. Other NDA partners JDU and Lok Jantantrik Party (LJP) are expected to win 20. In 2014, the BJP had won 22 with LJP getting 6 and RLSP (then with NDA) getting 3.
The non-NDA and non-UPA block categorized as "others" is expected to get 127 seats with MGB in Uttar Pradesh leadign the pack with 40. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is expected to win 29 seats, down from 34 it had won last time.
In Andhra Pradesh, the YSR Congress is expected to get 11, but Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is also likely to win 14, just a seat less from 15 in 2014.
In Telangana, it is Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) all the way as the party is expected to win 14 seats, up from 11 it had won last time. Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is likely to win 11, 9 down from 20 it had won out of 21 seats in Odisha in 2014.
If the BJP strikes post-poll alliance with YSR Congress, BJD and TRS, the NDA tally will reach 323, according to the exit poll.
The UPA's post-poll partnership with AIUDF, LDF, MGB and TMC will take its tally to 203.