'Radical shift': How Jamaat-e-Islami is rapidly closing the gap with BNP in post-Hasina Bangladesh

New Delhi, Dec 4 The political landscape in Bangladesh has been changing rapidly and contrary to the perception that it would be a cake walk for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Jamaat-e-Islami is rapidly picking up the pace.

With the Awami League out of the picture owing to the ban on it from contesting the elections, the fight is a direct one between the Jamaat and the BNP.

A year back, all polls suggested a sweep for the BNP. However, the gap is closing, and the Jamaat seems to be making massive inroads.

As per a survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), a US-based think-tank, 39 per cent said that they would most likely vote for the BNP. In the case of the Jamaat, it is 29 per cent, and Bangladesh watchers say that this gap would close further closer to the elections that are scheduled to be held in February 2026.

Another 6 per cent said that they would favour the National Citizens Party (NCP). The NCP was formed by the students who led the protests, which eventually made Sheikh Hasina quit the post of Prime Minister and flee the country.

Bangladesh watchers say that a lot began to change for the Jamaat after its students’ wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), swept the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union election. The ICS also won the elections in the Jahangirnagar, Rajshahi, and Chittagong varsities.

The Jamaat’s change in fortunes is attached to multiple factors. It has a better organisational structure when compared to the BNP. Had the Awami League contested, it would have had its nose ahead since it had an organisational structure better than that of the Jamaat.

The rise of the Jamaat also shows that a radical change is taking place in Bangladesh. There appears to be more favour for a party which believes in radical Islam.

Moreover, after the fall of the Hasina government, there has been a lot of interference by Pakistan, which is close to the Jamaat. This has helped the Jamaat in a big way, as with the help of Pakistan, it has managed to spread its radical agenda in larger parts of the country.

Officials point out that the Jamaat has indulged in radicalisation and also made several changes to institutions. While it has indulged in violence, it has stayed away from corruption. This, however, cannot be a guarantee post the elections, another official added.

The BNP, on the other hand, has assumed it has its nose ahead and will definitely win the elections. However, complaints about extortions and land grabs by some of its leaders have not gone down too well with the people, and hence, the popularity has dipped in recent months.

The NCP, on the other hand, has been too immature. Without even facing the elections, it wants to control the institutions and make changes. The people feel that leaders of the NCP are using their proximity to caretaker Muhammad Yunus to make decisions.

Yunus has been obliging since he is indebted to the students who led the protests leading to the ouster of Hasina.

Experts say that the Jamaat has been speaking about reforms, such as conducting elections, among others. They have been building a perception that they are not bad, like the BNP or the Awami League, and are truly interested in the welfare of the country.

However, one must bear in mind that this is just a smokescreen and the Jamaat will be back to being what it was after it wins the elections.

A Jamaat win is not good for India. For one, India has banned the outfit, and secondly, the Jamaat will not share good ties with New Delhi due to its proximity to Pakistan.

Moreover, when the Jamaat was in power with the BNP between 2001 and 2006, it was a nightmare for India. Anti-India elements and jihadis had a free run and used Bangladesh to launch operations against India.

This was the same time that ten truckloads of arms and ammunition bound for India were seized.

Experts say that for now, the call is a close one. There is a gradual shift away from the BNP, and the people are aligning towards the Jamaat. The question is, which way would the Awami League voters swing? According to experts, they are most likely to abstain.

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