The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the real GDP growth rate projection unchanged for the financial year 2025-26 unchanged during its second monetary policy on Friday, June 6. "The real GDP growth rate for the year 2025–26 is projected at 6.5 percent. We continue with our earlier forecast: Q1 at 6.5%, Q2 at 6.7%, Q3 at 6.6% and Q4 at 6.3%," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
According to Malhotra, industrial activity is recovering gradually, although the pace remains somewhat uneven. the services sector is expected to maintain its momentum into May 2025. He said that the private consumption continues to be the mainstay of aggregate demand.
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Malhotra noted that Rural demand is steady, while the urban demand is showing signs of improvement and investment activity is also picking up as reflected in high-frequency indicators tracked by the RBI. Further he said that the merchandise exports recorded strong growth in April 2025, partly due to front-loading of shipments, while services exports continue to follow a positive trajectory.
"The risks remain evenly balanced. Now, turning to inflation, CPI headline inflation continued its downward trajectory in both March and April. In April 2025, headline inflation moderated to a nearly six-year low, specifically, a 69-month low, at 3.2 percent. This was mainly driven by food inflation, which recorded its sixth consecutive monthly decline," the RBI Governor added.