The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a vigorous onset of the southwest monsoon in July, following an uneven run in June. Predictions indicate that rainfall across the country is expected to reach 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA), categorizing it as "above normal." The LPA for July stands at 28.04 cm, with anticipated precipitation exceeding this benchmark.
The anticipated increase in rainfall is expected to provide a significant boost to kharif sowing, which, as of last week, had already surpassed the area covered during the same period in 2023 by 30 percent. This robust kharif output, particularly in pulses and oilseeds, is likely to assist the government in its efforts to combat inflation.
July and August are the two most important months in the four-month southwest monsoon, which begins in June and contribute more than 60 per cent of the total. “Above-normal rain in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir along with the Godavari and Mahanadi delta will make them more prone to riverine floods but it is difficult to predict it now,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
He mentioned that during July, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except for several regions in northeast India and some areas in northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is anticipated.