Will prabhag system prove a boon for BJP in CSMC ?

On Tuesday, the Urban Development Department (UDD) issued an order to delimit electoral wards and form prabhags (each prabhag comprising four wards) for the upcoming Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar Municipal Corporation (CSMC) elections. From 1988 to 2015, municipal elections were held through the ward system. For the first time, voters in the city will cast their votes under the newly restructured prabhag system.

Previously in other municipal corporations across the state, the prabhag system has benefited the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Hence, the same formula is being implemented in this city. This system generally makes it nearly impossible for smaller parties and independent candidates to establish a foothold.

Since its establishment, the municipal corporation has held six general elections. In the first election in 1988, not a single BJP candidate was elected. In 1995, seven BJP candidates won. Since then, BJP’s presence has gradually increased, with 23 corporators elected in 2015. No municipal elections have been held since 2020.

For the first time, one prabhag consisting of four wards will be created. After 2022, the political landscape has shifted. The Mahayuti achieved major victories in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the city. One BJP and two Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) MLAs were elected. The upcoming municipal elections have also significantly boosted the enthusiasm and morale of Mahayuti workers in the city.

It is being speculated that there will be 29 prabhags in the upcoming municipal corporation elections. It is certain that the Mahayuti is making a determined effort to win control of the municipal corporation on its own strength. In political circles, there is talk that in each prabhag, the BJP will field two candidates, while the ally parties will field one candidate each, following a coordinated strategy.

Where BJP has benefited from prabhag system

Solapur Municipal Corporation (2017): The four-member prabhag system was implemented, and it significantly benefited the BJP.

Nashik (2014 & 2019): The BJP gained considerable advantage in both elections.

Nagpur: In 2012, BJP secured a majority under the two-member prabhag system. In 2017, it again gained a majority when the four-member prabhag system was introduced.

Horse-trading likely to end

In the past, the Shiv Sena–BJP alliance never secured a clear majority in the municipal corporation. As a result, over the last five to six elections, they had to form the ruling body with the help of independents and smaller ally parties. This often led to horse-trading during crucial elections like that of the Mayor and the Standing Committee. However, with the implementation of the prabhag system, such horse-trading is likely to reduce or even stop, as larger parties could secure more stable majorities.

Municipal Corporation elections held so far

1988

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015