Tensions that have slowed international trade and increased uncertainty, the global economy is expected to see slower growth in a broad range of economies over the next half decade.It is anticipated that China's growth rate will remain slow and will be a smaller driver to global GDP growth in the near term. The country's share of global GDP growth is anticipated to go down from 32.7 per cent in 2018-2019 to 28.3 per cent by 2024 – a relatively sharp 4.4 percentage point decrease.The International Monetary Fund estimate this week says that weaker global growth is expected to fall to 3 per cent this year and the slowest since the global financial crisis, will affect 90 per cent of the world.
Where will global growth come from in five years and which economies are the key players now? In order to identify these growth factors, Bloomberg used forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, tailored for purchasing power parity.Drivers of Growth in 2024Whilst the United States still expected to contribute a substantial portion of global growth, after India, is expected to fall to third place. The United States share of global growth is projected to fall from 13.8 per cent to 9.2 percent by 2024. India's share is expected to go up to 15.5 per cent and to overtake the United States over the next five years.
Indonesia will remain at fourth place, with its economy expected to increase 3.7 per cent by 2024, slightly down from 3.9 per cent in 2019.
With Brexit, the UK will see its importance decline from the 9th to the 13th in 2019 as a share of global growth.While Russia's global GDP growth is 2 per cent now and it is expected to remain the same in five years, the country is likely to oust Japan as fifth contributor to growth.By 2024, Japan is going to fall to ninth place. It is expected that Brazil will move up from No. 11 to No. 6. Germany's share of growth is expected to remain at 1.6 per cent and 7th on the list.According to IMF, new growth engines among the top 20 countries in five years will include Turkey, Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, while Spain, Poland, Canada and Vietnam drop out of the first 20.(With inputs from Bloomberg)