Depreciation risk rises for rupee, as oil prices soar (IANS Currency Watch)

Mumbai, Dec 13 Rising crude oil prices along with widening trade deficit has elevated the depreciation risk level for the Indian rupee during the upcoming week.

Accordingly, other factors like failure of Brexit talks as well as changes in US Fed's stand might the downside risks.

"We expect the rupee to trade strong till the time equity flows are robust," said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.

Last week, foreign institutional investors pumped in over Rs 15,000 crore into the equity markets.

The inflow not just lifted equities but also swelled the Reserve Bank's forex reserves.

"But, risks of depreciation are rising with crude oil prices rising above $50 a barrel and rising monthly trade deficit," Gupta said.

"Brexit talks failure can also lead to some volatility in markets."

The crude oil prices have been gaining during the week in anticipation of the FDA's potential approval of Pfizer's vaccine, as Asia's economic recovery is making Chinese and Indian refiners acquire more oil, and on rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Iraq had two wells hit.

Besides, the preliminary trade data on November showed that India became a net importer in November 2020, with a trade deficit of $9.96 billion.

"The dollar has been falling as we expected and now has reached near term support," said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Research at HDFC Securities.

"We expect the rupee-dollar to correct after four weeks of appreciation and head towards 74 mark next week. The 73.4 mark remains strong support for the pair."

According to Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said: "For the week, focus will be on inflation number; expectation is that the number could rise and that would further trim expectation of rate cut by the RBI."

"For the week, we expect the USD-INR

( With inputs from IANS )

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