New Delhi [India], May 23 : Global crude oil prices are likely to trade with a downward bias in 2025, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank.
The bank has revised its forecast for Brent crude oil, expecting prices to remain in the range of USD 60 per barrel to USD 70 per barrel. There is also a risk that prices could fall even further to USD 55 per barrel.
It said, "Global crude oil prices to continue to trade with a downside bias.... We subsequently further lower our Brent crude oil forecasts that are expected to trade in USD 60/bbl to USD 70/bbl range over 2025."
This is a downward revision from the bank's earlier forecast of USD 65 to USD 80 per barrel.
As a result of this new outlook, ICICI Bank now expects the average crude oil price for 2025 to hover around USD 65 per barrel. This is lower than the earlier estimate of USD 72 per barrel.
The report stated that several global factors could impact the price movements, including oil production by OPEC, economic stimulus measures from China, and geopolitical developments, especially concerning Iran.
While these factors could influence oil prices either way, ICICI Bank believes the overall trend for 2025 will lean towards lower prices. A key reason for this outlook is the expected surplus in oil supply. The bank projects a net supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) throughout 2025.
This is because of a combination of subdued global demand and higher production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
The trend has already started to show in the oil market, data from March and April 2025 points to increased supply levels as compared with the same period of 2024, when the oil market faced a deficit. The shift to surplus in 2025 is expected to weigh on prices further.
The report also highlighted that historically, a net supply surplus has a negative impact on oil prices. As a result, crude oil is expected to continue trading under pressure for the rest of the year unless there is a major geopolitical event that causes a sudden spike in prices.
In conclusion, with oil supply rising and demand remaining weak, the crude oil market is entering a phase of transition, and prices are likely to stay on the lower side throughout 2025.
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