India's appeal among emerging markets fading due to high valuation premium

New Delhi [India], August 5 : India's equity markets are showing signs of fatigue as stretched valuations collide with slowing profit growth, undermining the country's appeal among emerging markets (EMs), according to a report by Nuvama.

The report noted that despite a strong rebound, Nifty and SMIDs (Small and Mid-cap Stocks) rising 12 per cent and 20 per cent respectively since April lowsunderlying earnings momentum has weakened, calling the rally's sustainability into question.

"We argue this is unsustainable and skews the buyer-seller incentive structure decisively in the latter's favour," the report added.

The report added that the BSE500's median price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at an elevated 40x, while median trailing earnings growth has slipped to just 9 per cent.

The growing gap between company's profits and high stock prices is making the market more attractive for sellers than buyers.

The report mentions that the three key investor segments of insiders, domestic households, and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are reflecting a cautious sentiment in the Indian markets.

The report claims that in Q1FY26, insiders (including promoters, private equity, and corporates) offloaded or issued a record USD18 billion in equity, showing their desire to cash out at current valuations.

Meanwhile, household investor flows via mutual funds and direct equity have slowed, with net inflows down 26 per cent year-on-year to USD 9.5 billion.

Weaker income growth and subpar trailing returns, which now lag even debt instruments, could dampen future domestic inflows, the report added.

On the global front, the report observes that a weaker dollar has attracted USD 4.5 billion in FII (Foreign Institutional Investment) inflows during the quarter.

However, the report also highlights that India's performance is lagging other EMs as its earlier earnings edge has evaporated, making its high valuation premium harder to justify.

With fresh equity issuance rising and liquidity being absorbed, market risks are mounting. The current bull run faces headwinds as supply and sentiment begin to outweigh the growth narrative that once supported India's market premium, the report added.

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