New Delhi [India], August 25 : India's contract research, development, and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) sector is emerging as one of the most dynamic growth stories in the global pharmaceutical landscape. According to a recent Jefferies India report, the country's CRDMO, which has already reached revenues of around USD 3 billion, has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14 per cent over the past five years.
The report highlights that India's CRDMO industry has caught the attention of global investors, with its market capitalization now standing at USD 40-50 billion. While the Covid-19 pandemic temporarily skewed demand, the future looks stronger. Jefferies estimates an 18 per cent CAGR for the sector between FY25 and FY30, fueled by a visible drug pipeline, Big Pharma's diversification under the "China+1" strategy, and rising opportunities in weight-loss and Type 2 diabetes drugs.
A central driver of this momentum is the shift away from dependence on Chinese CRDMOs. For years, American pharmaceutical giants leaned heavily on Chinese players like Wuxi. But as geopolitical uncertainties deepened, the hunt for alternative supply chains intensified.
"We estimate the China+1 opportunity for Indian firms at USD 700 million annually in the base case, potentially rising to USD 1.4 billion in a bull case," the Jefferies report noted. It expects this structural realignment to continue for more than a decade, though risks remain if Big Pharma persists with in-licensing deals in China.
Big Pharma driven projects are setting the tone, with marquee Indian firms diversifying into advanced therapies. Jefferies points to Divi's Laboratories' contracts linked to the "blockbuster GLP-1 pipeline", Cohance's investments in antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and Piramal and Sai Life Sciences' strong late-stage portfolios.
The weight-loss and diabetes drug segment offers another layer of growth. The report estimates that intermediates for newer drugs such as Tirzepatide and Orforglipron could create a USD 1.2 billion market by 2030.
The Jefferies report identifies Sai Life Sciences as a top pick, citing its integrated services and strong east-west presence, projecting 15 per cent revenue CAGR and 24 per cent EBITDA CAGR between FY25 and FY28.
The report also initiated coverage on Cohance with a "Buy" rating, upgraded Divi's Laboratories on its GLP-1 exposure, maintained Piramal Pharma as a value play, and adopted a cautious stance on Syngene, Gland, and Laurus Labs due to limited triggers or execution challenges.
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