New Delhi [India], February 12 : India's natural gas consumption is forecast to increase by nearly 60 per cent by 2030, driven by robust growth in city gas distribution, industrial demand, and power generation, International Energy Agency said in its 'India Gas Market Report - Outlook to 2030'.
Since 2000, India's natural gas consumption more than doubled, exceeding 65 billion cubic metres per year by 2023.
Between 2023 and 2030, gas consumption is projected to grow by nearly 60 per cent, reaching 103 bcm/year, bringing India roughly on par with the current gas consumption of Saudi Arabia.
The city gas distribution (CGD) sector is expected to lead this growth, supported by the rapid expansion of compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and the cost advantage of gas over liquid fuels for small industrial users, the IEA report noted on Wednesday.
Heavy industrial and manufacturing sectors, such as iron and steel production, are also driving demand, collectively adding around 15 bcm/year during this period.
Gas use in oil refining is expected to increase by more than 4 bcm/year as more refineries get connected to the grid.
"Growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertiliser sectors remain more limited, as no new gas-based capacity additions are foreseen within our forecast horizon," it noted in the report.
Gas demand in the power generation sector is projected to reach nearly 15 bcm/year by 2030, driven by a recovery in large gas-fired power plants and the rapid expansion of gas use in captive power plants.
Further, IEA said targeted strategies and policy interventions could boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted trajectory to around 120 bcm/year by 2030, close to the current gas consumption of the entire continent of South America.
Also, accelerated uptake of natural gas across the residential, commercial, transport and electricity sectors could add another 15 bcm/year of gas demand by 2030.
India's domestic gas production, which met 50 per cent of demand in 2023, is expected to grow only moderately through 2030.
"After nearly a decade of decline and stagnation, India's domestic gas production has seen a resurgence. In 2023, total net gas production reached 35 bcm, meeting about half of the country's gas demand," the report read.
"This growth is primarily driven by the deepwater fields in the Krishna Godavari basin, which now account for nearly 25 per cent of India's total production. Between 2024 and 2030, only moderate growth is expected, supported by increasing onshore production from coal bed methane (CBM) and discovered small fields (DSF)," it added.
India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential remains largely untapped, with annual output expected to reach 0.8 bcm by 2030.
India's CBG potential is estimated at approximately 87 bcm/yr, while the installed capacity currently represents less than 1 per cent of this potential, IEA said.
India's LNG imports are set to more than double between 2023 and 2030, driven by steady demand growth and a much slower rise in domestic production.
Between 2013 and 2023, India's LNG imports increased by 70 per cent, and reached 36 bcm in 2024, matching the previous record set in 2020 and cementing the country's position as the fourth-largest LNG importer globally.
Looking ahead, India's LNG demand is projected to grow steadily, reaching 64 bcm/year by 2030.
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