New Delhi [India], June 20 : According to a recent report by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI), India's petroleum product demand is forecast to increase by a CAGR of 5.37 per cent between 2025 and 2030, largely propelled by the manufacturing and transportation sectors.
Diesel, petrol, Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), and petroleum coke are expected to lead this surge.
India's economy is projected to grow at over 6 per cent annually, with primary energy demand increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4 per cent. This robust economic expansion will inevitably fuel higher energy consumption.
Additionally, Natural gas consumption is also projected to see substantial growth, with a nearly 60per cent increase (37 bcm/year) by 2030, reaching 103 bcm/year. The City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector, along with heavy industrial and manufacturing sectors, are anticipated to drive this demand.
Despite this rising demand, India faces inherent vulnerabilities as over 85per cent of its crude oil needs are met through imports, positioning it as the world's third-largest oil importer. Furthermore, geopolitical instabilities, particularly in crucial chokepoints like the Hormuz Strait and Suez Canal, pose consistent threats to crude supply and pricing.
On the price front, Brent crude prices are forecast to decline from an average of USD 81/barrel in 2024 to USD 74/barrel in 2025 and further to USD 66/barrel in 2026. This decline is attributed to a global expansion in petroleum production outside OPEC+ and a more moderate demand growth.
Domestically, India's crude oil production is expected to increase over the short term, reaching 48.5 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) by FY 2026-27, before a projected decline to 45.5 MMT by FY 2029-30 due to maturing oil fields and limited new discoveries. In contrast, natural gas production is anticipated to rise significantly, reaching 54.7 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) by FY 2029-30.
This growth aligns with the government's objective to increase natural gas's share in the primary energy mix from 6 per cent to 15 per cent by 2030, a commitment driven by cleaner energy goals and reduced carbon emissions.
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