Vodafone Idea Shares Fall by 3% After JPMorgan Flags 23% Potential Fall from Current Levels

Shares of Vodafone Idea fell 3% after global brokerage firm JPMorgan downgraded the stock to ‘Underweight’ and warned of a potential 23% downside from current market levels. The stock, which is currently trading at ₹11.45, could fall below ₹9 per share, according to the brokerage. JPMorgan believes that the recent rally in the stock is overdone, as the company is still awaiting bank funding to drive the next phase of its capital expenditure cycle.

The brokerage said fresh capital expenditure is crucial for Vodafone Idea to arrest subscriber losses and move towards net subscriber additions through improved network investments. It also flagged that the company’s target of a threefold increase in cash EBITDA over the next three years appears aggressive, especially as it assumes market share gains against strong competitors such as Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, a scenario that JPMorgan views with caution.

According to the brokerage, the company faces multiple challenges before its business stabilises, including securing timely bank funding and achieving consistent positive subscriber additions. At 15 times its FY27 EV/EBITDA estimates, JPMorgan believes the stock’s valuation remains stretched given the operational and competitive risks.

Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea promoter Kumar Mangalam Birla has marginally increased his stake in the telecom major, providing some support to investor sentiment. The stock had earlier risen 4.04% to ₹11.62 on Monday, marking its highest level since January 9 this year.

Birla purchased 2.21 crore shares on January 30 and another 1.88 crore shares on February 1 at ₹11.13 per share. As of December 31, 2025, he held 1.94 crore shares, representing a 0.02% stake in the company. Total promoter holding stood at 25.57%, while the remaining 74.43% stake was held by public shareholders, according to shareholding pattern data available on the BSE. Earlier, Emkay Global also cautioned that the key risks to its bullish outlook include Vodafone Idea’s inability to increase subscriber market share, significantly raise average revenue per user (ARPU) through tariff hikes, and upgrade its subscriber base from 2G to 4G and 5G services.