Vodafone Idea Shares Fall Despite ₹45,000 Crore Investment Plan as Brokerages Flag Execution Risks

Shares of Vodafone Idea (Vi) declined in trade on Thursday even after the telecom operator unveiled an ambitious ₹45,000 crore capital expenditure (capex) roadmap, as analysts urged caution over execution risks, funding challenges and lofty growth assumptions. The stock came under selling pressure after brokerage firms acknowledged the necessity of the aggressive investment plan but questioned its achievability, given the company’s fragile balance sheet and intense competitive landscape. The stock was currently trading at Rs, 9.78 witnessing a 1% fall against the previous close of 9.95 after the stock opened at Rs. 10.01.

Telecom major Vodafone Idea has once again laid out its revival blueprint, centred on heavy network investments, stabilising subscriber trends and a supportive regulatory environment. With the long-standing AGR issue largely resolved, management has outlined a three-year strategy aimed at regaining competitiveness against industry leaders Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. The centrepiece of the plan is a ₹45,000 crore capex programme over FY26–FY29, which includes expanding 4G coverage across 17 priority circles and rolling out 5G services in key urban markets. Around 70 per cent of this investment will be directed towards radio and tower infrastructure. As part of this expansion, Vodafone Idea plans to add 40,000–45,000 unique towers over the next two years, after having added nearly 20,000 towers in the past 18 months. However, despite the strategic rationale, brokerages remain cautious about the scale and execution of the plan.

ICICI Securities termed the roadmap “ambitious but critical”, pointing out that the implied revenue CAGR of 17.5 per cent over FY26–FY29 is significantly higher than the industry growth outlook. Achieving this would require sustained tariff hikes, rapid network expansion and stabilisation in subscriber churn — all tough targets in a highly competitive market.  ICICI Securities also trimmed its FY26–FY27 EBITDA estimates by 10–15 per cent due to concerns over execution and funding risks, while retaining a ‘Hold’ rating and a target price of ₹10. The brokerage highlighted that meaningful improvement would depend on consistent delivery of the company’s capex plans and operational turnaround.

Motilal Oswal described the revival goals as “lofty”, warning that the path ahead remains long and uncertain. The brokerage noted that Vodafone Idea’s turnaround depends on multiple external factors such as timely debt funding, continued tariff hikes, rational competition and regulatory stability, many of which remain beyond the company’s direct control. The brokerage firm added that even retaining the current market share would be challenging, given the stronger cash flows, network quality and product offerings of rivals. While Motilal marginally raised its revenue estimates for FY27 and FY28, it maintained a neutral stance and lowered its target price to ₹10 from ₹11. “We reiterate our Neutral rating on Vi with a revised target price of ₹10, based on DCF-implied valuations that already factor in a premium to peers,” Motilal Oswal analysts said.

JM Financial struck a relatively positive tone, maintaining an ‘Add’ rating with a target price of ₹11, citing early improvements in average revenue per user (ARPU) and data subscriber metrics. However, it too flagged balance sheet stress and funding dependency as key risks. Overall, while brokerages acknowledge the necessity of Vodafone Idea’s aggressive reset strategy, they remain wary of near-term optimism. The cautious outlook weighed on investor sentiment, dragging the stock lower even as the company pitched its ambitious revival roadmap.