Climate change could force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by 2050.
The World Bank's updated Groundswell report released today finds that climate change, an increasingly potent driver of migration, could force 216 million people across six world regions to move within their countries by 2050.
Sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific around 49 million; South Asia as many as 40 million; North Africa to 19 million; Latin America to 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia to around 5 million.
Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050.
The report also finds that immediate and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, could reduce the scale of climate migration by as much as 80 per cent.
Climate change is a powerful driver of internal migration because of its impacts on people's livelihoods and loss of liveability in highly exposed locations.
By 2050, "The Groundswell report is a stark reminder of the human tolls of climate change, particularly on the world's poorest--those who are contributing the least to its causes. It also clearly lays out a path for countries to address some of the key factors that are causing climate-driven migration," said Juergen Voegele, Vice President of Sustainable Development, World Bank.
"All these issues are fundamentally connected which is why our support to countries is positioned to deliver on climate and development objectives together while building a more sustainable, safe and resilient future," added Voegele.
The updated report includes projections and analysis for three regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
It builds on the novel and pioneering modelling approach of the previous World Bank Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
By deploying a scenario-based approach, the report explores potential future outcomes, which can help decision-makers plan ahead.
The approach allows for the identification of internal climate in- and out-migration hotspots, namely the areas and prepares for expected migration flows from which people are expected to move due to increasing water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise, and urban and rural areas with better conditions to build new livelihoods.
The report provides a series of policy recommendations that can help slow the factors driving climate migration, including - Reducing global emissions and making every effort to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement; Embedding internal climate migration in far-sighted green, resilient, and inclusive development planning; and Preparing for each phase of migration, so that internal climate migration as an adaptation strategy can result in positive development outcomes.
( With inputs from ANI )
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