Stage set for momentous Putin-Trump summit in Alaska

Moscow: US President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the US Joint Military Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska on Friday. Putin has met five US presidents, including Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. He is one of the successful statesmen in the world today. The West wanted Ukraine to be a Western bulwark on Russia's borders and the core element in this policy was NATO expansion eastwards. Russia made it unequivocally clear that this move was unacceptable to them.

NATO took advantage of Russia's weakness just after the collapse of the Soviet Union, moving and encroaching steadily in Russia's near-abroad. For Putin, Ukraine is a key national interest and he has accused the US/West of taking Russia's "red lines" too lightly. Putin would like them to understand that, in the long run, Kyiv has to have a good working relationship with Moscow. Unwavering European support for Ukraine continues with Germany being the biggest backer in Europe with arms and ammunition and funds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Berlin on Wednesday and joined European leaders for talks with President Trump, who said that European leaders wanted "to see a deal done".

With the notable exception of Hungary, the European leaders are nervous and reiterated that no decision should be taken without Ukraine and are trying to shape Trump's views before the Friday summit. Trump rated the meeting "a 10" and mentioned Russia would face "severe consequences" unless the war in Ukraine is stopped. According to Trump, if the Friday meeting produces results, he would try to organise a "quick second one" involving both Putin and Zelensky.

Europe is demonstrating solidarity with Ukraine on its territorial integrity. European leaders have reaffirmed that territorial issues should only be discussed with participation of Ukraine. Zelensky travelled to the United Kingdom on Thursday to meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Recognising the explicit threat from Russia, the NATO leaders who met in The Hague on June 24-25 agreed to raise a minimum of five per cent of GDP in defence and defence-related spending annually by 2035 on the central issue of Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine. Understandably, a weak Europe is in Russia's interest.

The virtual call was the closest that nine European leaders, including Zelensky, could participate as the EU and none of the European leaders were invited. For Russia, eastern Ukraine is a "hidden treasure of minerals". Russia wants to maintain a land corridor to Crimea via southern Ukraine. In September 2022, Russia's Special Military Operation resulted in the annexation of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine. Zelensky has reaffirmed that Ukraine would not give up the Donbass region in exchange for a ceasefire.

President Putin detailed that Russia has not changed its June 2024 demands over Ukraine, which are: complete denazification, total demilitarization, alliance neutrality/non-aligned, and withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Additionally, rights and freedoms of Russian speakers will have to be ensured and that Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk are part of the Russian Federation. However, neither Kyiv nor Europe views these demands as viable. Further, Kyiv will have to inform Moscow officially that it would not join NATO and would remain neutral/non-aligned. Zelensky underscored that pressure must be exerted on Russia for the sake of a fair peace.

As of today, Russia controls about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory on the ground. Russian forces have penetrated near Dobropillya, using new drone innovations and tactics. In recent months, Russia's drone adaptations with repeater drones that extends the range of tactical drones and fibre-optic drones that are resistant to Electronic Warfare (EW) have enabled Russian forces to threaten Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communications (GLOCs). Along with drone adaptations, Russian strike and reconnaissance have achieved desired outcomes in Battlefield Air Interdiction (BAI). Russian forces have knocked out Ukrainian drone crews northwest of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Huge losses have occurred on both sides.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has discriminated against Russian speakers in the eastern region of the country. Russia is yet to achieve its objective of protecting Russian language speakers and Ukrainian Orthodox Church-UOC which is historically linked to the Russian Orthodox Church-ROC (Moscow Patriarchate). The UOC had declared its independence in May 2022 from the ROC-Moscow Patriarchate. However, Ukrainian authorities suspect UOC of collaborating with Russia.

Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) was set up in January 2019 to neutralise the UOC. The American CIA built OCU and USAID funded it to finish UOC. For ROC, UOC was a victim of persecution and in need of external protection. One of the reasons President Putin invaded Ukraine was to protect UOC as Russia’s church. For Trumpists, UOC is the political tool for forcing Kyiv to make concessions to Moscow.

Kyiv has been the cradle of Eastern-Slavic civilization. Kievan Rus’ spread from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea from the Carpathians to the Volga. The modern nations of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus’ as their cultural ancestors with Belarus and Russia deriving their names from it. Hence, Kyiv cannot fully escape Moscow's geopolitical reach.

The White House observed that the face-to-face summit with Putin will be a "listening exercise for Trump". In fact, Moscow's demands from the US and NATO not to move eastward are strategic goals of Russian Foreign and Security Policy in Europe. The US/West needs to understand that Putin is an astonishing risk-taker. Trump expects to focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war and is open to the idea of a "land-for-peace deal" to the much antipathy of Ukraine and its European partners. It is difficult to envisage the outcome of the summit due to conflicting interests and priorities. Beyond doubt, the outcome of the summit will re-politicise US-Europe relations, which cannot negate Russia's geopolitical significance and impact.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

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