Mumbai Weather Update: IMD Predicts Light to Moderate Rain, Thunderstorms Likely on October 16

Light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by possible thunderstorms, is expected in Mumbai on October 16, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The department has issued a green alert for the city for October 16, predicting light to moderate showers as per the daily district forecast. IMD stated that an upper air cyclonic circulation persists over the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean, extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level and tilting southward with height, which could influence upcoming weather conditions in the region.

IMD further reported that under the influence of this cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area, off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts, around October 19, 2025. A senior IMD official mentioned that this synoptic situation could bring cloudy skies and rainfall to Mumbai, as reflected in the district forecast. The expected showers come despite the early withdrawal of the monsoon this year, indicating residual weather activity linked to changing atmospheric patterns.

The India Meteorological Department had declared the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Mumbai on October 10, marking the city’s earliest retreat since 2018, when the monsoon had withdrawn on October 6. Interestingly, this year’s season had also seen an unusually early onset—the first in 75 years—on May 26. Typically, the monsoon exits the Mumbai region during the second or third week of October. This rare combination of early onset and early withdrawal has made the 2025 monsoon season notably distinct.

Earlier, IMD had predicted a delayed withdrawal due to western disturbances affecting the region. However, despite the early exit, the rainfall recorded in Mumbai this year has been significantly above average. From June onwards, the Santacruz observatory registered 3113 mm of rainfall, amounting to 134 per cent of the city’s annual average of 2319 mm. Meanwhile, the Colaba observatory recorded 2270 mm, which is 103 per cent of its annual average of 2195 mm, indicating a wetter-than-usual season overall.