Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 Exit Polls: Big Win Predicted for NDA, Mahagathbandhan Trails Behind, No Prashant Kishor Impact

Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 Exit Polls: Exit polls indicate the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Nitish Kumar is likely to return to power in the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections with a comfortable majority. The poll of polls predicts the NDA will secure around 150 seats. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to get about 90 seats. The exit polls also predicted that Prashant Kishor-led Jan Surraj, which made its debut in the assembly polls, is unlikely to make any splash in terms of seats.

IANS-Matrize Bihar Exit Poll: Alliance & Party Seat Share Projections #BiharElection2025#ExitPollpic.twitter.com/x7hGkbSBAt

— IANS (@ians_india) November 11, 2025

• Matrize-IANS — NDA 147-167, Mahagathbandhan 70-90, Jan Suraj 0-2, Others 2-8 
• People’s Insight — NDA 133-148, Mahagathbandhan 87-102, Jan Suraj 0-2, Others 3-6 
• JVC Poll — NDA 130-150, Mahagathbandhan 88-103, Jan Suraj 0-2, Others 3-6 
• Dainik Bhaskar — NDA 145-160, Mahagathbandhan 73-91, Jan Suraj 0-2, Others 5-10

The majority mark is 122 seats. The projections give the ruling alliance a clear advantage. Smaller parties and independents are expected to have minimal impact.

While exit polls provide an early indication of voter preferences, past elections have shown that the predictions can be inaccurate. In the 2020 elections, exit polls predicted a narrow win for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan with 125 seats. However, the NDA won 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. Official results will be officially declared on November 14, 2025.

Bihar witnessed a triangular contest between the NDA, Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj Party. The campaign saw high-octane rallies and a sharp exchange of political messaging.