New Delhi/Patna Nov 11 The National Democratic Alliance appears poised for a sweeping victory across most regions of Bihar in the recently concluded 2025 Assembly elections, according to the Matrize News Communications exit poll released on Tuesday.
With a statewide vote share projection of 48.4 per cent translating into 147 to 167 seats, the NDA maintains a commanding lead in four out of five major regions, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) struggles to retain ground, particularly in Seemanchal.
In Mithilanchal, comprising 71 seats, the NDA is projected to secure 50 to 55 seats with 47.7 per cent of the vote, leaving the MGB with 18 to 23 seats on 36.5 per cent. The region, known for its cultural and linguistic identity, shows consistent support for the ruling alliance.
Similarly, in Magadh comprising 51 constituencies, the NDA leads with 30 to 35 seats and 48.8 per cent vote share, while the MGB trails at 17 to 22 seats with 36.2 per cent. Bhojpur, the largest region with 67 seats, mirrors this trend. The NDA is expected to win 37 to 42 seats with 48.4 per cent votes, compared to the MGB’s 20 to 25 seats on 36.1 per cent.
Angika, covering 30 seats in the eastern part of the state, also leans heavily towards the NDA, projected to take 20 to 23 seats with 47.9 per cent vote share, against the MGB’s 7 to 10 seats on 37.1 per cent.
Seemanchal stands as the only region where the MGB holds an edge. With 24 seats, the opposition alliance is projected to win 8 to 10 seats with a dominant 49.9 per cent vote share, while the NDA is limited to 10 to 12 seats despite 39.1 per cent votes. The remaining 2 to 3 seats are likely to go to others, reflecting the region’s distinct socio-political dynamics and minority voter influence.
Across Bihar’s 243 Assembly constituencies, the NDA’s regional dominance is near-uniform outside Seemanchal, where vote consolidation among Muslim and backward communities appears to have bolstered the MGB.
The exit poll, conducted between November 6 and 11 through random sampling and CATI methods with a sample size of 66,087, carries a margin of error of 3 per cent. The survey highlights the NDA’s broad-based appeal across Angika, Bhojpur, Magadh, and Mithilanchal, driven by development narratives and governance continuity.
In contrast, Seemanchal remains a pocket of resistance for the ruling parties, underscoring persistent regional fault lines in Bihar’s electoral landscape. Final results, expected in the coming days, will confirm whether these projections hold.
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