Setback in local polls clouds CPI(M) prospects as Cong seeks to seize early momentum for Kerala Assembly elections

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec 31 A pall of gloom has descended on the Kerala unit of the CPI(M) after it failed to meet expectations in the recently concluded local body elections, a contest the ruling Left had viewed as a springboard to set the narrative for an unprecedented third consecutive term in office.

Instead, the results have exposed vulnerabilities that the party can ill afford to ignore as the Assembly election cycle draws closer.

Known for its formidable organisational discipline -- often contrasted with the Congress’ faction-ridden structure -- the CPI(M) entered the polls confident that governance continuity under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, now nearing a decade in office, would translate into electoral consolidation.

That confidence has been shaken.

A series of controversies, including the Sabarimala gold smuggling case, in which key figures linked to the Left ecosystem are facing legal scrutiny, has complicated the party’s political messaging and blunted its welfare narrative.

Privately, senior leaders admit the challenge ahead is daunting. “As things stand, a miracle may be needed,” a top CPI(M) leader said on condition of anonymity.

With only months left before the Assembly polls, the leadership is pinning its hopes on intensive grassroots mobilisation to arrest the slide.

There is also growing introspection over why the second Vijayan government has struggled to replicate the relative political stability and goodwill of the 2016-21 tenure, with some within the party revisiting Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments as a structural reality.

Electoral arithmetic has further complicated matters.

The CPI(M) is reassessing its engagement with the Muslim community, which accounts for over 22 per cent of the state’s population and has largely backed the Left in the 2016 and 2021 elections.

Simultaneously, sections of the Christian electorate -- traditionally loyal to the Congress and briefly receptive to the Left -- appear to be drifting back to the United Democratic Front amid evolving socio-political anxieties.

In sharp contrast, the Congress has moved quickly to capitalise on its tumultuous local body gains.

Riding high on the results, the party’s top brass is set to converge in Wayanad in the first week of 2026 to kick-start preliminary work on candidate selection.

Significantly, the Congress is seeking to replicate its recent strategy of being the first in naming candidates -- an early-mover advantage that paid dividends in the local polls.

For Kerala’s ruling Left, the local body verdict has emerged as a warning signal.

For the Congress-led opposition, it has opened a window to reshape the political contest well ahead of schedule.

The BJP-led NDA, which has no representation in the 140-member Kerala Assembly, pins hopes on the historic victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. It could fetch them gains, even when the ground reality is that they have not been able to increase their vote share in the recently held local body polls.

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