Will China Invade & Annex Taiwan?

If China attacks Taiwan, the US intervention cannot be ruled out. If that happens, the entire world will be affected. India will not remain untouched either.

Even as shifting geopolitical dynamics reshape the balance of power in the world, a serious question is floating in everyone’s mind: Will China soon annex Taiwan while the world will watch helplessly? Or will the United States step in to save Taiwan? If that happens, what will be China’s move? And the biggest question of all is what impact will this have on India?

The reason this question has become even more serious now is that Russia has attacked Ukraine and occupied more than 7,000 square kilometres of its territory. In the efforts being made by the United States to end the war, there is talk of the occupied territory remaining with Russia. On the other hand, the United States has detained the President of Venezuela and it is clear that Venezuela has effectively come under US control. In such a situation, China has a golden opportunity to seize Taiwan. China has a history of territorial takeover. In 1950-51, it seized Tibet and the world did nothing more than engage in verbal condemnation. As far as Taiwan is concerned, Xi Jinping has consistently threatened to annex it with China. He has also instructed his army to remain prepared. Every year, China conducts military exercises that make it appear as though it is on the verge of taking over Taiwan. Chinese aircraft flying in Taiwan’s airspace is no longer a new phenomenon. China hopes that if Taiwan targets even one of its aircraft, it will get an excuse to launch an attack. However, Taiwan has maintained restraint. For now, a status quo exists.

Many of you may be wondering why China is so determined to seize Taiwan. To find the answer, we must go back in history. Japan began occupying China in 1931 and by 1945, it had taken control of large parts of the country. When the United States dropped bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Second World War ended. With that, China became free and was named the Republic of China. However, a power struggle soon began between two parties. The oldest was the Kuomintang, also known as the Chinese Nationalist Party, led by Chiang Kai-shek. The other was the Chinese Communist Party, led by Mao Tse-tung. A fierce conflict erupted between the two. Mao emerged victorious and Chiang Kai-shek fled, taking refuge in China’s coastal region, which he declared independent and named the Republic of China -- commonly known as Taiwan. Meanwhile, Mao Tse-tung named the territory under his control the People’s Republic of China. Despite his desire, Mao was not in a position to capture Taiwan, for at that time he lacked the means to occupy an island surrounded on all sides by the sea. Some sporadic battles did take place but China did not succeed.

The course of events took a drastic turn in 1979 when a trade agreement was signed between China and the United States. The United States needed a large market and China’s then leader Deng Xiaoping persuaded it to recognise only the People’s Republic of China as the ‘real’ China. The United States agreed and the then President Jimmy Carter closed the US embassy in the Republic of China, that is Taiwan. Deng Xiaoping immediately threatened Taiwan, asking it to merge with China. However, China did not dare to launch an attack on Taiwan. Though talks between the two sides continued at various levels thereafter, the reality is that bitterness only kept increasing. Today, the entire Taiwanese population stands against China. If China attempts an attack, it will face fierce resistance, leading to massive bloodshed. In fact, from the moment Xi Jinping came to power in China, he made his intentions clear that he will accept nothing less than Taiwan’s merger with China. For him, it has become a prestige issue. If he succeeds in seizing Taiwan, he would become China’s most powerful leader of all time.

There is, of course, a vast gap between the military strength of the two countries. However, Taiwan is confident that the United States will support it. A recent study by an American think tank has concluded that if China launches an attack, victory will not be easy for it. As many as 1,00,000 Chinese soldiers could be killed. On Taiwan’s side, 50,000 soldiers along with 50,000 civilians, and about 5,000 American soldiers, could become casualties. The report also claims that ultimately China would be forced to retreat. What does the mention of American soldiers in this study imply? The meaning is clear: The United States is prepared to support Taiwan. China understands this and that is precisely why it has not been able to attack Taiwan -- though it continues to issue threats from time to time. If this war breaks out, it would not be good for anyone. We, too, would certainly be affected in some way. All nations of the world must understand that war can never be a solution to any problem. But who will make reckless leaders understand this?

The author is the chairman, Editorial Board of Lokmat Media and former member of Rajya Sabha.