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Coronavirus: Scientists develop online calculator to predict risk of dying from COVID-19

By Lokmat English Desk | Updated: May 15, 2020 15:10 IST

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British scientists have built a calculator that can predict a person’s risk of dying from coronavirus.
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The online tool, created by researchers at University College London (UCL), predicts a one-year mortality rate based on factors such as age, sex and underlying illnesses.
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It also takes into account the risks of the infection as well as indirect elements such as strain on the health service.
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The calculator has been built as part of a wider study, which warns lifting the coronavirus lockdown too quickly could lead to anywhere between 37,000 and 73,000 excess deaths within a year.
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The study, published in The Lancet journal, estimates there are about 8.4 million individuals who are extremely vulnerable to Covid-19 infection across the whole of the UK.
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Author Professor Harry Hemmingway said keeping the infection rate down among the public is helping to keep these vulnerable people safe.
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He explained doctors also “need to continue to deliver high quality medical care to vulnerable people to prevent excess deaths in those who are not infected with coronavirus”.
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Researchers looked at data from 3.8 million health records for the study.
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Based its conclusions on England having a 10 per cent infection rate and 20 per cent of people having a high-risk condition.
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the loosening of lockdown restrictions on Monday - but faced backlash from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, who all said they would not be dropping the 'Stay at Home'
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The UK currently has the second-highest number of virus-caused deaths in the world after the United States - close to 40,500.
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Another of the study's authors, UCL Professor Harry Hemingway, said that to keep vulnerable people safe during the pandemic, the infection rate must be kept down.
Tags: Coronavirus
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