New Delhi [India], January 7 : The Indian economy, in real terms, is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 as compared to the 8.2 per cent growth in 2023-24. It is 20 basis points less than RBI estimates.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the First Advance Estimates of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the financial year (FY) 2024-25 on Tuesday.
Nominal GDP is expected to witness a growth rate of 9.7 per cent in 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2023-24.
Real gross value added (GVA) has grown by 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 over the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2023-24. Nominal GVA has shown a growth rate of 9.3 per cent in 2024-25 as compared to a growth rate of 8.5 per cent in 2023-24.
Real GVA of agriculture and allied sector has been estimated to grow by 3.8 per cent during 2024-25 as compared to the growth of 1.4 per cent witnessed during 2023-24.
Real GDP is estimated to attain a level of Rs 184.88 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25, against the provisional estimate of Rs 173.82 lakh crore last fiscal.
The Indian economy grew by 5.4 per cent in real terms in the July-September quarter of the current financial year 2024-25. The quarterly growth was quite less than RBI's forecast of 7 per cent. In the April-June quarter too, India's GDP grew at a slower pace than was estimated by its central bank.
Urban consumption has apparently witnessed a slowdown as persistent inflation dampened the purchasing power of the urban poor.
For India, the GDP data for the second quarter of 2024-25 and headline consumer price inflation have posed the dilemma of a slowing growth-high inflation conundrum. Food prices in particular continue to remain a pain point for the policymakers in India, who wish to bring retail inflation to 4 per cent on a sustainable basis. The RBI has kept the repo rate elevated at 6.5 per cent to keep inflation contained.
High-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2024- 25 (October-December) indicate that the Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in July-September, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP forecast for 2024-25 to 6.4 per cent from its previous estimate of 7.0 per cent.
The downward revision from the rating agency came soon after the Reserve Bank, in its latest monetary policy, cut growth forecast to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent.
The Economic Survey tabled in Parliament earlier this year "conservatively" projected India's real GDP growth at 6.5-7 per cent for 2024-25, acknowledging that market expectations are higher. Real GDP growth is the reported economic growth adjusted for inflation.
India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22.
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