New Delhi, Dec 22 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent in its February monetary policy meeting given the RBI’s dovish guidance, a new report has said.
The Union Bank of India (UBI) said in the report that there is scope for a final 25 bps cut either in February or April 2026, also due to central bank's repeated references to benign inflation and subdued underlying price pressures.
If adjusted for around 50 bps inflation contribution from gold, underlying price pressures appear even more moderate, the report added.
"We see scope for a final 25bps rate cut in February or April 2026. Given the dovish policy guidance, we cannot rule out the possibility of a final 25bps rate cut in Feb'26 meeting to 5 per cent repo rate, even as the timing of final rate cut is usually difficult to call," the report said.
The bank noted that timing remains uncertain also due to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) base‑year revisions, due in February 2026. These factors could prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to adopt a wait‑and‑watch stance and reassess inflation and growth trends once the revised data are published.
RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the repo rate by 25 bps in December, bringing it to 5.25 per cent, and the next MPC meeting is scheduled for February 4–6, 2026.
The RBI revised FY26 growth estimate to 7.3 per cent as domestic factors including income tax rationalisation alongside easing monetary policy and a GST-led rationalization push from the fiscal side will enable sustained growth in the second half.
A recent report from Yes Bank said that a new consumer price index (CPI) with lower food weightage could limit the comfort derived from falling food prices and reduce scope for further rate cuts unless growth weakens materially.
The RBI's moves to keep liquidity comfortable and anchor the operative rate to the repo rate is expected to continue, it added.
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