Global Intelligence faces rapid transformation, India must strengthen capabilities: ORF Report

New Delhi [India], January 12 : A major new paper from the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) outlines how geopolitical volatility and technological change are fundamentally reshaping the world of national intelligence. Authored by Samir Saran, President, ORF, and Archishman Ray Goswami, Non-Resident Fellow, ORF, and a DPhil International Relations candidate at the University of Oxford, the study 'Swords and Shields: Navigating the Modern Intelligence Landscape' examines emerging trends that intelligence agencies must confront in the decade ahead.

The ORF report argues that traditional intelligence practices are under pressure from a combination of digital interconnectedness, shifting global power dynamics, and the rise of private sector intelligence actors. It highlights how "geotechnography" - the blending of physical geography with digital space, now enables the rapid mutation of transnational political affiliations and narratives that intelligence services must monitor and interpret in real time.

The report says that it is incumbent upon national intelligence agencies to develop the analytical capabilities to better relate global developments to local ones in order to pre-empt the proliferation of sudden, volatile forms of social and political identity in a more fractious geopolitical landscape.

The authors note that competing nations are increasingly struggling for influence over critical physical resources, especially rare-earth elements. These materials are central to modern technologies and are expected to intensify strategic competition, requiring intelligence agencies to adapt beyond conventional regional missions.

Human intelligence (HUMINT), long considered the backbone of espionage, is also evolving amid ubiquitous technical surveillance and sophisticated open-source intelligence (OSINT). While digital tools now shape much of what intelligence services can access, the report stresses that well-cultivated human networks remain vital for understanding adversaries' intentions.

Another key theme is the growing role of private sector intelligence, from Big Tech data analytics to corporate espionage, which is increasingly interwoven with national security. This blurs the line between government espionage and commercial information gathering, creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities for state actors. The report says that the growing power of Big Tech, propelled by their access to enormous quantities of data beyond the reach of even large intelligence services, portends massive changes within the global intelligence landscape.

For India specifically, the ORF paper underscores the need to strengthen its intelligence capabilities, including supply-chain security, HUMINT capacity, and collaboration with partner states. A greater emphasis on growing its HUMINT capacities while remaining cognizant of the technological constraints shaping it, is vital, says the report. As India ascends as a major global economy, its intelligence services must adapt to a more complex and competitive strategic environment.

The report cites the establishment of In-Q-Tel, a venture capital firm focused on emerging technologies, by the CIA in the late 1990s which helped the US maintain its strategic and technological edge and recommends that the Indian government dedicate resources to a similar fund for the R&AW. Establishing smooth liaison channels with India's indigenous R&D ecosystem, much of which exists as part of the private sector, is vital, emphasising self-sufficiency as India grows as an independent power in a more competitive world, says the report.

The authors conclude that the winners of tomorrow's geopolitical contests will be nations whose intelligence communities can integrate technological advances with strategic foresight and adaptability.

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