Bengal polls: Advantage Trinamool in phase 2; BJP seeks better showing than 2021

New Delhi, April 25 West Bengal’s principal Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will need to significantly shore up its 2021 performance in phase two of Assembly election scheduled on Wednesday, April 29, where most of the 142 seats spread across seven districts have historically voted overwhelmingly for the ruling Trinamool Congress.

The BJP had a favourable field among the 152 constituencies which went to poll in the first phase last Thursday, April 23, where it had won 59 of the total 77 seats in a 2021 surge.

Among the districts is Nadia, which has altogether 17 Assembly constituencies. Seven of these come under Krishnanagar Parliamentary seat, which is held by Trinamool’s Mahua Moitra.

Among the seven Assembly segments, the BJP could win only one, Krishnanagar Uttar. BJP candidate Jagannath Sarkar retained the other Lok Sabha seat of Ranaghat in 2024.

His party had also fared well in the 2021 Assembly poll, winning four of the seven segments here.

Among the three other three Assembly seats, Karimpur -- which falls under Murshidabad Lok Sabha -- went to the Trinamool, while Kalyani and Haringhata, both part of Bangaon Parliamentary constituency, was won by the BJP.

North 24 Parganas witnessed a near sweep by the Trinamool, though Bongaon and Barrackpore Lok Sabha seats went to the BJP in 2024 and the Trinamool kept Barasat and Basirhat.

Among the 33 Assembly constituencies, the BJP could win only three in the 2021 state poll. In South 24 Parganas, the Trinamool made a clean sweep of the 31 assembly segments, except Bhangar, which went to the Indian Secular Front in 2021, and made a clean run in the five Lok Sabha seats in 2024.

Trinamool holds the Kolkata fortress with two Lok Sabha and 11 Assemblies in its kitty where the BJP is trying to make a dent this time. The state ruling party’s juggernaut rolled unchallenged in the five Parliamentary seats in Howrah and Hooghly in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. Among the 34 Assembly constituencies in these two districts, the BJP could manage four in the 2021 state election, all coming under the Arambagh Lok Sabha seat in Hooghly.

In Purba Bardhaman, the Trinamool swept through all the 16 Assembly segments in 2021 and wrapped up the three Parliamentary constituencies in 2024.

In subsequent by-elections, held due to a sitting MLA either moving or resigning, there were changes in the 2021 results.

For example, the Trinamool edged out BJP in Santipur and Ranaghat Dakshin Assembly seats in Nadia district under Ranaghat Lok Sabha constituency.

Also among seats going to polls are those considered Matua strongholds in the North 24 Parganas, where the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has created misgivings.

More than 12.3 lakh names were deleted across three phases of the exercise, with the Bongaon subdivision – home to four Matua-dominated Assembly segments – facing the fallout.

Three of the seats here are currently held by the BJP, which had led in all four during the last Lok Sabha polls. Gaighata was worst affected, losing over 16,000 voters, while Bagdah, Bongaon North, and Bongaon South also saw thousands of deletions.

Many Matua voters allege targeted exclusion, pointing to unfulfilled promises of citizenship. Local leaders expressed frustration, saying delays in processing applications left them disenfranchised.

The fallout has sparked a fierce blame game. Trinamool leaders accused the BJP of betraying the Matua community by failing to deliver on citizenship assurances, while BJP functionaries urged voters to seek redress through tribunals.

SIR fallout has also extended to urban pockets like Bidhannagar and Rajarhat, where tens of thousands of names were struck off. With the Matua vote seen as crucial in these constituencies, the issue has become a flashpoint.

The Matua community is a socio-religious group with roots tracing back to the Namasudra movement led by Harichand Thakur in the 19th century.

Originally formed to challenge caste-based discrimination and promote social equality, the Matuas became a significant voice for marginalised Hindus, particularly those who migrated from Bangladesh during Partition.

In West Bengal, they are concentrated in districts like North 24 Parganas and Nadia, where their numbers make them a decisive electoral bloc.

Their demand for citizenship rights under the CAA has become a central political issue, with both the BJP and Trinamool Congress vying for their support.

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