Cong, Left in struggle for political existence in upcoming Assembly polls

New Delhi, April 6 Among the four states and a Union Territory going to polls this month, results of two – separated by a distance of almost 2,500 kms – will hold the key to revival of two of the country’s once-significant political forces.

Going with the states, on-ground media reports and political pundits suggest that neither the Grand Old Party Congress, nor the once-kingmakers Left parties have any distant chances of gaining power in either Tamil Nadu or West Bengal.

In Tamil Nadu, both are contesting the April 23 Assembly election as junior partners in alliance with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). While in West Bengal, neither appears set to hold pole position in the state Assembly.

The only possibility is in Kerala, for either; and in Assam, for the Congress.

Coincidentally, both states go to polls on Thursday. In the Southern state, the two lead opposing coalitions have alternately shared power in the last four decades – a record broken by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in 2021.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led alliance has won the state elections in 1980, 1987, 1996, 2006, 2016, and again in 2021.

It was the first time in 40 years where an incumbent government returned to office twice in a row.

Overall, the LDF has won 6 out of 10 elections since the formation of the alliance in 1980.

The year before that, then state Congress leader K. Karunakaran created the United Democratic Front (UDF) and came to power in 1981, returning in 1982 after a brief spell of President’s Rule.

The coalition has since won elections to the state legislature in 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2011. In the absence of a third strong contender for power, the mandate will again favour one of the two alliances, providing a much-needed impetus to either the Congress, or the CPI(M) – both of which have seen considerable erosion in their political base in the past years.

The May 4 results will determine whether the UDF this time can keep the LDF from achieving another record – that of winning the state election three times in a row.

The Grand Old Party of India has been through a rough patch, failing even in retaining its rule in states like Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, suffering defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Even in Delhi, the Congress could not capitalise on anti-Aam Aadmi Party sentiments, finishing a distant third.

Another loss would render a massive jolt to the Gandhi scions, where Rahul is the prominent face leading the Congress' attempt at revival and Priyanka, for her high-profile entry into politics from Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency. Thus, a victory is what the party would look at with anti-incumbency against the LDF built over two successive terms in power and the state undergoing a fiscal stress.

For the Left, it is the last bastion standing after losing power in West Bengal and Tripura.

Meanwhile, in Assam, the contest is largely between two blocs – one led by the BJP and the other by the Congress, where the latter is desperately trying to win an uphill battle, struggling to retain relevance in key constituencies.

Pre-election surveys have painted a grim picture for the party, but it is betting heavily on a Gaurav Gogoi-led revival after two successive defeats in the state.

Some on-ground reports suggest that high-profile exits have weakened the party’s organisational strength. Meanwhile, a fracture in minority votes after its separation from the perfume king Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) may not augur well for either.

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