New Delhi, Sep 26 A few days before the Election Commission’s expected announcement of the Bihar Assembly election schedule, parleys continue to forge a common Opposition front to take on the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), currently led by Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar in the state.
The main challenger, like the 2020 polls, is expected to be the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance, comprising mainly Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Left parties, and the Congress.
Early surveys and on-ground reports indicate poll consultant-turned-politician Prashant Kishor’s recently-launched Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), emerging as a possible decider in case of a close finish like 2020, with a follower base developing in south Bihar.
Kishor is all set to go ahead on his own.
Another party, reportedly having some sway over minority voters, especially in Bihar’s border areas, AIMIM – led by Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi – has expressed intent in being a part of the MGB, seeking to contest six of Bihar’s 243 Assembly constituencies.
Last time, it was part of a six-party third alliance – the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF).
Meanwhile, the NDA is reportedly close to a seat-sharing agreement with the two chief constituents – the JD(U) and BJP – almost equally sharing a little over 200 seats and leaving close to 40 for other allies.
In this battle of the big two i.e. NDA vs. Mahagathbandhan, the key to a few constituencies may lie in the hands of parties organisationally smaller, and may or may not be part of either alliance.
In 2020, beyond the three alliances, a record 212 parties contested, of which, 190 parties each polled less than 0.1 per cent of votes, and all small parties together accounted for about 2.7 per cent of the mandate, according to an analysis of the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).
Adding to his chief’s version, AIMIM spokesperson Syed Asim Waqar said that his party has written separate letters to RJD supremo Lalu Prasad and his son, the de facto chief, Tejashwi Yadav.
It was followed by huge demonstration at their house in Patna with drum beating AIMIM members trying to draw attention to its request.
The RJD is yet to respond.
Though, buoyed by the close finish in 2020, party leader Tejashwi Yadav has begun negotiations with prospective partners, and has also hit the road to feel the pulse of the people. The AIMIM is generally believed to have a following in parts of Seemanchal – or border – regions of Bihar.
In the last election, it won five of the 20 seats it contested. Mahagathbandhan leaders had blamed Owaisi for their bloc losing the 2020 mandate by a thin margin. In later period, however, four of the elected AIMIM MLAs crossed over to the RJD.
Incidentally, Seemanchal voters comprise a large chunk of the Muslim population. Traditionally considered RJD supporters, they were considered to have switched allegiance last time on religious grounds. Yet, the NDA won 12 out of 24 seats in Seemanchal last time.
Some believe that if the AIMIM joins the Mahagathbandhan, apart from consolidating Muslim votes in this region, it may hold sway over the entire Muslim population across the state – which is about 17 per cent.
On the flip side, however, recognising an alternative Muslim leadership may undercut the RJD’s core ‘Muslim-Yadav (MY)’ narrative and concede that it is not the sole champion of minorities’ cause in the state.
Also, bringing AIMIM onboard could expose the Mahagathbandhan to sharper “communal-polarisation” attacks by the NDA.
This can be used against the larger Opposition INDIA Bloc in subsequent state polls.
Additionally, there are questions within the Mahagathbandhan over AIMIM’s political objectives and organisational discipline.
Critics argue that the party intends to drive a wedge among minority voters to benefit the BJP. Also, the defection of a majority of its elected candidates reflects poorly on leadership control.
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