The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the return of the monsoon in India may be postponed until the end of September. An IMD official has forecasted heavy rainfall through the final week of September due to low pressure linked to La Nina. Typically, the monsoon arrives in India in June and is expected to recede by mid-October.
The monsoon, crucial to India's Rs 3.5 trillion economy and responsible for replenishing 70 percent of the country's water bodies, is expected to be impacted by La Nina this year. According to an official, La Nina is likely to bring heavy rainfall throughout September and October, with a history of causing delays in the monsoon's return.
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Reason for DelayLow pressure is expected to form in the third week of September, which is likely to delay the monsoon's return journey.
Above-Average RainfallIndia has experienced approximately 7 percent more rainfall than usual this year, with some states receiving up to 66 percent above the average rainfall.
Impact on Crop SowingKharif harvesting, typically beginning in the second week of September, may be adversely affected by heavy rains in September and October, potentially damaging crops like rice, soybean, corn, and pulses. Conversely, the increased moisture could benefit the cultivation of rabi crops such as wheat, turnip, and gram.
Consequences of Delayed Rain
- September Crop Production: A delay in rainfall could impact the production of crops including soybeans, corn, rice, and cotton.
- Kharif Season Benefits: Moisture from delayed rains may positively affect the wheat and gram crops of the kharif season.