Indo-Pak tensions cast shadow over Nilambur Assembly bypoll in Kerala

Thiruvananthapuram, May 13 The Indo-Pakistan tensions along the border have cast a cloud of uncertainty over the Nilambur assembly by-election in Kerala.

With by-elections also pending in border states like Jammu & Kashmir and Gujarat, the recent tension makes it increasingly unlikely that the Election Commission will go ahead with polling only in Nilambur while holding off in the other states.

One person who might quietly welcome this uncertainty is Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The Nilambur seat was held since 2016 by P.V. Anvar, who contested as a CPI(M)-backed independent. However, after a prolonged fallout with Vijayan, Anvar stunned political circles by resigning as MLA in January and pledging support to the Congress-led UDF.

Anvar, who had defeated strong Congress candidates in both 2016 and 2021, further surprised everyone by announcing that he would not contest the by-election himself -- much to the relief of the UDF.

A political observer, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the delay in the by-election could be politically convenient for the Chief Minister.

“Just the other day, LDF convenor T.P. Ramakrishnan declared they were on track for a third straight Vijayan-led government in 2026. But retaining Nilambur -- a seat they’ve held for two consecutive terms -- was already looking like a challenge. If they were to lose it, the narrative of a third-term wave would take a significant hit. So, a postponement suits them,” the observer said.

Earlier this month, election officials had completed preparatory work, including the revision of the electoral roll and identification of polling stations. But with hostilities flaring at the border soon after, plans have since been left in limbo.

Nilambur, traditionally a Congress stronghold, was won by Anvar in 2016 with a margin of over 10,000 votes. However, his victory margin dropped to less than 3,000 in 2021.

Now aligned against Vijayan, Anvar has vowed to help the Congress win the seat with its largest-ever margin -- though the current geopolitical situation has thrown all calculations off course.

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