The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially ruled out the possibility of El Niño conditions affecting the upcoming southwest monsoon season. In a press briefing, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced that, based on current forecasts and global weather models, this year’s monsoon season in India is unlikely to be disrupted by the El Niño phenomenon. “According to international models and our climate assessments, El Niño conditions are not expected to influence the 2025 monsoon. We are anticipating neutral El Niño conditions,” said Mohapatra. He also emphasized that while last year’s El Niño led to a 6% drop in rainfall, the year before saw 8% above-average rainfall under La Niña conditions.
El Niño, marked by a temperature increase of 0.5 to 1°C in the central Pacific Ocean, often disrupts normal monsoon patterns in India, typically resulting in below-average rainfall.
Each year, the IMD releases its preliminary monsoon forecast in April for the whole country. While the neutral El Niño outlook is promising, Mohapatra stated that the complete monsoon prediction will be revealed in the department’s upcoming April update. He further noted that oceanic conditions in the Indian Ocean and surrounding maritime areas remain crucial factors in determining monsoon behavior.
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Soaring Temperatures Ahead of Monsoon
Meanwhile, IMD has also cautioned about an exceptionally hot summer across the country. Pre-monsoon months - April to June - are expected to bring higher-than-usual temperatures. India generally experiences four to seven heatwave days during this period, but in 2025, some regions, particularly in eastern India, could endure up to 10 days of extreme heat. The rising temperatures are likely to put additional stress on public health and infrastructure, prompting calls for early preparedness and mitigation strategies at both the local and national levels.