The team of scientists from the Indian Council Of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Imperial College London, UK said that third wave of covid is less likely to be as severe as the second wave. The ramping up vaccination drive could play an important role in mitigating the present and future waves of the virus spread.
India was hit by first covid wave March 2020 with a peak attained in mid-September. This phase was relatively mild compared to the second wave that followed, from mid-February 2021 onwards, as many people lost their lives.
A major factor that was responsible for second wave was the variants of SARS-CoV-2, principally B.1.1.7 (Alpha variant) and B.1.617.2 (Delta variant), of which the latter has played a dominant role in recent months.
Countries like the UK and the USA are already facing the third wave and many factors are responsible for this, said the study. The results suggest that a third wave, if it should occur, is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave, given the extent of spread that has already taken place in India, it adds.
"Consequently, for a virus to cause a major third wave in the face of this pre-existing immunity, extreme scenarios for the abrogation of that immunity are required, or for that matter, for the transmission fitness of any novel virus," says the article in the Indian Journal of Medical Research.