New Delhi [India], January 15 : Escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran could add to upside risks to inflation in India, as it may push global commodity prices upwards, highlighted a report by Bank of Baroda.
The report highlighted that geopolitical risks remain a key concern. Any escalation in tensions could push commodity prices higher, especially energy and industrial commodities, which would add to upside risks to inflation in India.
It stated "Any escalation in tensions between US and Iran may also push commodity prices upwards and add to upside risks to inflation".
The wholesale price index (WPI) inflation eased to 0.8 per cent in December 2025, compared to a 2.6 per cent increase in December 2024.
However, inflation was higher than the (-) 0.3 per cent decline recorded in November 2025. On a year-on-year basis, the moderation in WPI inflation was supported mainly by softer food and manufactured product inflation, while fuel inflation was slightly higher compared to last year.
The core inflation also inched up to 2 per cent in December 2025 from 0.7 per cent in December 2024, indicating some underlying price pressures in the economy.
The report mentioned that in the manufactured products category, softness in inflation was driven by items such as food products, textiles, wearing apparel, computers and electronics, and chemical and leather products. These categories helped ease overall price pressures during the month.
The report also added that the slower pace of deflation in fuel inflation was mainly driven by the mineral oil index. However, on the global front, prices of oil have declined so far in January 2026, offering some near-term relief on fuel-related inflation.
Other commodity prices, including lead, zinc and aluminium, have also been witnessing downside pressures.
Despite this, the report cautioned that a depreciating rupee could increase the cost of imported goods, thereby adding to inflationary pressures.
So the report outlined that while recent trends show easing in WPI inflation, the global developments, currency movements and geopolitical tensions will remain critical factors influencing India's inflation outlook going forward.
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