HDFC Bank Gains Ahead of Budget 2026 on Rebound Hopes; Analysts Maintain ‘Buy’ Rating

Shares of HDFC Bank gained in today’s trading session ahead of Budget Day 2026, as analysts maintained a positive outlook on the stock, citing favourable risk-reward after its recent underperformance versus the Nifty Bank over the past one month. The stock was trading at ₹933.85, up from its previous close of ₹929.25. During intraday trade, HDFC Bank touched ₹937.15, rising ₹1.50 or 0.16 per cent.

Market expert Anil Singhvi highlighted crucial technical levels for the stock. He noted that HDFC Bank has been rising for the third consecutive session but continues to form a lower high and lower low pattern. The intraday high on Thursday stood at ₹941, while Friday’s high was lower at ₹939, indicating near-term resistance. Singhvi said the stock broke a major support level of ₹940 on January 14, which has now turned into a strong resistance zone. He also pointed out that the stock entered an oversold territory on January 14, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping to 22.59.

“Over the past two years, HDFC Bank has turned oversold in January with RSI below 25, and each time it has seen a strong rebound from those levels,” Singhvi said. He added that historically, the stock tends to form a bottom during January and February, while tops are usually made between October and December. HDFC Bank delivered returns of 38 per cent from bottom to top in 2024 and 26 per cent in 2025. According to Singhvi, the stock made a low of ₹905 on January 27, 2026. “From the oversold levels, the stock has already recovered about 3.5 per cent in just two days,” he said, adding that a sustained close above ₹945 would provide a fresh bullish signal.

So far in 2026, HDFC Bank shares are down nearly 7 per cent. With Budget 2026 around the corner, fiscal cues are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping sentiment for banking stocks. A credible fiscal deficit path, manageable borrowing numbers and a sustained push towards capital expenditure could help keep bond yields in check, improve liquidity transmission and give the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) greater comfort to ease policy without unsettling debt markets — setting the stage for a relief rally in bank stocks.

According to analysts at Axis Securities, the banking sector’s Budget 2026 wishlist is firmly centred around growth visibility, credit flow support and targeted liquidity measures. Axis Securities expects the government to maintain a strong thrust on capital expenditure, which could act as a key trigger for reviving corporate credit growth. A sustained capex push would not only support loan demand but also improve asset quality visibility over the medium term.

However, analysts cautioned that any further rate cuts could exert incremental pressure on net interest margins, even as credit growth remains orderly. That said, sector fundamentals remain intact, with no major earnings downgrade risks, supportive asset quality trends and gradually improving credit demand. As Budget 2026 unfolds, investors are likely to track large private banks for margin stability, PSU banks for growth visibility, and mid-sized lenders for execution in a softer rate environment, with fiscal signals expected to set the near-term direction for banking stocks.