New Delhi, Jan 7 While the 7.4 per cent GDP growth rate projected for FY 26 in the first advance estimates of the Ministry of Statistics "is quite expected and reasonable", the actual figure is eventually likely to be higher at around 7.5 per cent, an SBI Ecowrap report released on Wednesday stated.
"We believe that GDP growth for FY26 would be around 7.5 per cent with an upward bias. The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23," the SBI report said.
On the expenditure side, the heads that have positively contributed include the government consumption with a growth of 5.2 per cent in real terms, it said.
Exports have also held their ground with positive growth of 6.4 per cent. Private consumption growth was a tad lower at 7 per cent, possibly due to a slowdown in the agriculture sector. Per capita consumption expenditure registered a growth of 6.1 per cent. Uptick in government consumption, and traction in services has held up the demand in FY26, cushioning the impact of external headwinds, the report further said.
Capital formation, which slowed last year, has recovered in FY26. The real growth in capital formation at 7.8 per cent was higher by 70 basis points (bps) from last year’s growth. The nominal capital formation growth was also higher, indicating a revival in investment demand, the SBI report observed.
Imports have registered a growth of 9 per cent in nominal terms but a growth of 14.4 per cent in real terms. However, this is expected to moderate in FY27, given the outlook on energy prices, the report pointed out.
The fiscal deficit at the end of November 25 stood at Rs 9.8 lakh crore or 62.3 per cent of the budget estimate (BE). Although the tax revenue is likely to be lower than the budgeted for FY26, non-tax revenue will be on the higher side, thereby not impacting the overall receipts much. Total expenditure is also expected to be lower, leading to a fiscal deficit of Rs 15.85 lakh crore compared to the budgeted Rs 15.69 lakh crore. With the new higher GDP figure, the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4 per cent, the report added.
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