The political equations surrounding Maharashtra’s municipal elections have shifted significantly after the Thackeray brothers came together. Until a month ago, Eknath Shinde appeared uneasy within the Mahayuti alliance, but he has now emerged as a key requirement for the BJP. This change explains why the Mumbai BJP is unwilling to risk upsetting him. After a nine-year gap in civic polls, the BJP may allocate up to 90 seats to the Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Mumbai BJP chief Amit Satam said that a meeting between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde resulted in agreement on 207 seats, with decisions pending on 20. Of these, BJP gets 128 and Shiv Sena 79, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP will contest separately, effectively breaking the Mahayuti alliance in Mumbai, similar to the Mahavikas Aghadi situation.
With only two days left for nominations in Mumbai, the BJP appears noticeably softer in its approach. Despite marathon discussions between the BJP and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, consensus is still elusive on around 20 seats. Initially, the BJP aimed to field candidates on over 150 seats to secure its first-ever Mumbai mayor. However, the reunion of the Thackeray brothers has increased Shinde’s bargaining power, pushing his party’s share close to 90 seats. The BJP seems to be yielding to Shinde’s demands. For years, the party’s top leadership has aspired to install its own mayor in Mumbai. Sources say a strategy was drawn to contest over 150 of the 227 BMC seats and win at least 130 independently. Shinde, meanwhile, claims the support of nearly 80 former corporators.
A new seat-sharing formula has now come to light. Earlier projections suggested that the BJP would contest 155 seats, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena 65, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP seven seats in Mumbai. However, due to Shinde’s insistence, Ajit Pawar’s NCP exited the Mahayuti, forcing the BJP to reduce its own tally. Reports indicate that agreement has been reached on 207 seats, with 128 going to the BJP and 79 to the Shinde faction. A decision on the remaining 20 seats is expected soon. The BJP’s major concern now is the Thackeray brothers. The alliance between Shiv Sena (UBT) and the MNS could consolidate Marathi votes. Survey estimates suggest that their unity could seriously challenge the BJP on 60 to 80 seats, echoing concerns seen during the 2024 assembly election calculations.