New Delhi, Oct 18 The second half of FY24 would be one of the strongest periods for hotel companies in the last 10 years, on the back of events like the Cricket World Cup, Miss World 2023 pageant finale and a robust wedding season, JM Financial Institutional Securities said in a report.
Going forward, we continue to believe that occupancies and ARR can grow further -- these may not necessarily be achieved in a consistently upward and linear fashion though, as there could be short term disruptions to an otherwise strong narrative, viz. high base of FY24E, General Elections in May’24, possible risk of IPL moving out of India, unfavourable mix due to higher share of corporate travels -- possibly getting nearer to pre-Covid levels.
As the underperforming demand segments (corporate travel and inbound tourism) come to the fore in 2HFY25E, we expect occupancies to inch upwards to 70-72 per cent, thus leading to low double digit ARR growth during this period adjusted for extremely high rates during the ODI matches in respective venues, the report said.
For our coverage universe, we expect ARRs to grow at a lower rate of 6-8 per cent in FY25E (vs. 10 per cent in FY24E) and we assume an expansion in EBITDA margins by 100-150 bps on account of positive operating leverage.
In 3Q/4QFY24, the domestic hotel industry is on track to record decadal high numbers on the back of strong domestic tourist demand and major global events. ARR is expected to grow by 15-20 per cent YoY in FY24E. The high base of FY24E should result in a moderation of growth in FY25E, the report said.
Furthermore, in 1QFY20, when the last general elections took place, occupancy and RevPAR declined by 0.4 per cent and 2.9 per cent YoY respectively.
We believe a similar situation will play out at the start of FY25E which would lead to a temporary disruption in growth. As corporate sector demand (especially rates negotiated through RFPs) comes back into the revenue mix, it would result in a downward pressure on the room rates, the report said.
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