GST reforms boost India’s consumption and demand; growth outlook revised upward

New Delhi, Oct 27 The rollout of GST 2.0 has started showing a positive impact on India’s economy, with stronger consumption trends, higher sales across key sectors, and improved consumer sentiment, Finance Ministry’s data showed on Monday.

The reform, coupled with the festive season, has boosted demand and is expected to further strengthen growth momentum in the coming months, according to the monthly economic review for September 2025.

The implementation of lower GST rates has encouraged both consumption and investment across sectors, which is also helping create more employment opportunities, the report said.

Demand conditions in the second quarter of FY26 have shown clear improvement, supported by strong performance in high-frequency indicators.

Consumer durables output grew by 5.4 per cent in July and August 2025, compared to 2.6 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year.

Urban sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) remained steady at 4.1 per cent during the same period, while rural FMCG sales surged by 8.4 per cent, showing robust consumption in smaller towns and villages.

The convergence of Navratri festivities with the implementation of GST rate cuts further lifted consumer sentiment.

As a result, retail sales of passenger vehicles jumped 34.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) during the Navratri period, driven by new buyers and upgrades to premium models.

Two- and three-wheeler sales also witnessed a 35.3 per cent increase, while tractor sales in September touched an all-time high, supported by favourable monsoon conditions and rural purchasing power.

The surge in festive spending was also visible in digital transactions. The average daily volume and value of UPI payments rose sharply in October compared to the previous month, reflecting strong demand powered by the GST reforms and festive enthusiasm.

Economists expect the momentum built in the second quarter of FY26 to continue in the months ahead, supported by resilient domestic activity and demand recovery.

The recent GST rationalisation, particularly on essential and high-value goods, is expected to sustain consumption and encourage job creation.

Amid a challenging global backdrop marked by trade policy uncertainty and higher US tariffs on Indian goods, India’s domestic strength has stood out, the report stated.

High-frequency indicators show healthy trends, while GST reforms and festive season demand have helped the economy maintain its growth pace.

Reflecting this optimism, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have raised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26.

The IMF now expects the economy to grow at 6.6 per cent, while the RBI projects a slightly higher 6.8 per cent.

Analysts believe that recent GST rate cuts will help keep inflation moderate while continuing to support household spending.

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