In a major revelation by Chinese experts it is likely that India will witness a big surge in the number of COVID-19 patients in the month of June. According to a report published in Hindustan Times there are chances that 15,000 positive cases will be reported in a day. Huang Jianping, director of Lanzhou University’s Collaborative Innovation Center of Western Ecological Safety has made this prediction in his interview with Hindustan Times. The number analysis is done through a global forecast model prepared by Chinese researchers for the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier, the research group's forecast model had predicted 9,291 new cases on June 2 with the Health ministry numbers showing 8,909 cases in the last 24 hours the biggest spike in a single day.
Huang Jianping the director in charge of the forecast model told Hindustan Times, “For May 28, we had predicted 7,607 new cases of Covid-19 in India, which is close to the reported number. Our prediction is at an initial stage. Error analysis will soon be updated on our website,” The forecast system which makes daily predictions for 180 countries also revealed that United States which has witnessed 1,00000 deaths will see a daily increase of 30,000 new cases in June. Meanwhile, predicting a dip in positive cases in the European countries which is the worst hit by the Chinese virus. The functioning of the system which was launched a week ago works alongside set parameters. This includes, impact of climate, environmental conditions, population density, as well as the precautionary measures undertaken by the govt.
According to Mr. Huang Jianping, Meteorological factors can affect the spread of the virus and different factors contribute differently in different regions in the world. “For India, the high population density reduces the social distance and is conducive to the development of pandemic. The influence of temperature is limited, compared with other factors,” he said. There is also a belief that the number of new cases in India will rise as the government gradually eases the lockdown. When quizzed about the authenticity of the system, Huang said, epeated verification and debugging was done thoroughly. India is currently on the 7th spot on the global list of countries worst-hit by Covid-19. Globally, over 6,378,239 cases have been reported, while 3,80,250 people have succumbed to the infection.