After the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban last August, it was believed that the new regime would not allow the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to use Afghan soil to attack Pakistan, however, the cross-border terrorism increased in the area.
The Taliban is unlikely to take actions to constrain TTP and there is every possibility of escalation of violence and unrest in the Af-Pak border area, reported International Forum For Right And Security (IFFRAS).
The Afghan Taliban's rise to power was considered a "strategic win" for Pakistan but at the same time, provided an unmistakable boost to the TTP.
According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), 207 terrorist attacks took place in Pakistan in 2021, an increase of 42 per cent compared to 2020. Around 335 lives were lost in these attacks.
PIPS notes that the TTP alone was responsible for 87 attacks, an increase of 84 per cent relative to 2020. The TTP claimed an additional 42 attacks in the month of January 2022, reported IFFRAS.
As the events have evolved over a period of a few months post-Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 and escalation of violence in the Durand Line area.
It is believed that some recent attacks by the TTP, planned and launched from Afghanistan, had infuriated Pakistani authorities, prompting them to approach the Afghan Taliban and remind them of their commitments made during the Doha Accord.
Moreover, the gravity of the security situation of the tribal areas in between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the massive presence of TTP in the area were explained by the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) 29th Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report, published in the first week of February 2022.
It stated that TTP still has between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters in Afghanistan. The report claims family members of TTP fighters in Afghanistan wished to resettle in Pakistan under assurances to reintegrate, reported IFFRAS.
The TTP's two key demands are the imposition of Sharia in Pakistan and the release of the group's prisoners.
In a way, Pakistan has brought down upon itself this precarious situation, as in December 2021, TTP cadres who were in white and grey lists of the Government of Pakistan were released, said IFFRAS.
Moreover, the TTP got furious as Pakistani Security Forces conducted raids in Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Swabi, and North Waziristan and killed and detained their cadres.
In Pakistan, there was a thinking after the Taliban's takeover that the new regime would not allow the TTP to use Afghan soil to attack Pakistan, given the Afghan Taliban's long-standing association with Pakistan and in the manner of its promises to the US and other countries regarding terrorist groups functioning from its soil.
But the truth is that the Taliban is unlikely to take actions to constrain the TTP -- its ideological twin, said IFFRAS.
( With inputs from ANI )
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