Commercial sex work could spike COVID-19 cases in India, says study
By Lokmat English Desk | Published: May 18, 2020 03:59 PM2020-05-18T15:59:47+5:302020-05-18T15:59:47+5:30
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Allowing commercial sex work to commence immediately after lockdown in India’s red light areas could lead to a rapid rise in cases according to a report by experts.
Though these findings have been “shared” with State governments, the findings are still being peer-reviewed.
As per the study, if red light areas are kept closed following the lifting of lockdown, there can be a delay in the peak of COVID-19 cases by up to 12 days in Mumbai, 17 days in New Delhi, 29 days in Pune, 30 days in Nagpur, and 36 days in Kolkata.
For the purposes of the study, the lockdown period was considered from March 24-May 3. While relaxations have been made in several zones, lockdown continues to be in effect in India.
Maharashtra, West Bengal and Delhi are among the regions with the highest COVID-19 burden.
The closure can reduce COVID-19 cases by 21% in Mumbai, 27% in Pune, 31% in New Delhi, 56% in Nagpur, and 66% in Kolkata in a 45-day period, the study finds. Deaths can be reduced by 63% in India, 28% in Mumbai, 38% in New Delhi, 43% in Pune, 61% in Nagpur and 66% in Kolkata in the first 60 days, the study reveals.
These numbers are based on the prevalent reproduction number (R0) of 2.0, meaning that every infected person spreads the disease to two others. Experts say that an epidemic starts to cease when the R0 dips below 1.There are close to 6,37,500 sex workers in India as per the National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO), and over 5 lakh customers visit red light areas.
